What will be the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on Kazakhstan? In this context, the correspondent of "Adyrna" interviewed economist Baurzhan Iskakov.
- Is the Russian-Ukrainian war a big blow to Kazakhstan?
- Of course, Kazakhstan is now one of the most integrated countries in the world. Kazakhstan is a member of all political and military alliances.
Now the conflict between the two states is having a negative effect on us. After all, Kazakhstan is a country with ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.
We are members of the CSTO. All sanctions against Russia have an indirect effect on Kazakhstan.
- The tenge fell and the dollar rose. Is it really a difficult time?
- Of course, the current value of the tenge against the dollar is more than 470. We know that such conflicts only cost us money.
For example, Kazakhstan is an import-dependent country. Most of our imports come from Russia.
In 2021, the trade turnover between Kazakhstan and Russia will exceed 27 billion dollars.
This shows our inter-commodity dependence on other countries. This, in turn, will lead to an economic crisis.
As for the depreciation of the tenge and how it will be done, the value of the Russian ruble against the tenge is currently declining.
Shares of major Russian companies fell to 35-40% on the international market.
Some even drop to 70%.
This is one of the reasons for the devaluation of the tenge. After all, as a transit country, we export our goods through Russia.
I repeat, any sanctions imposed on Russia will inevitably affect Kazakhstan.
That is, we may not be able to sell our goods at the same high prices as before. It will be difficult for us, too, because sanctions are imposed on goods exported through Russia.
The fact that the base rate has already risen from 10.25% to 13.5%. It will lead to higher prices for loans and mortgages in the country. The economy is hit indirectly.
Due to the depreciation of the tenge, the state plans to finance up to 10% of the population's tenge deposits.
All this is paid from the national budget, so it will be a big loss for the state.
- How to stop the economic crisis?
- We assume that if the situation in these two countries continues to deteriorate, it is possible that the value of the tenge, which is still not provided with strong domestic resources, will fall.
If the situation worsens, the depreciation of the tenge to 500 tenge in the next ten days may not be news.
It is necessary to work with the factors that prevent further devaluation of the tenge.
Thank you for talking!
Meruert Omirzak,
National portal "Adyrna"
